Election Predictions

A week out from election day, the maps seem to be stabilizing. I've been keeping an obnoxiously close eye on this election. I'm taking my data from Nate Silver's 538 blog and recent polls on ballot measures on the national level, as well as conversations with people who follow the state legislature and my own observations on the state level. My predictions:

• President Obama narrowly retains the presidency by winning Ohio. Romney takes Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
• Democrats retain a majority in the senate. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, Tim Kaine of Virgina, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin all win their senate seats. 
• Both amendments to the Minnesota Constitution (Marriage and Voter ID pass. 
• In all likelihood, in fact, none of the states that have gay marriage on the ballot will vote in favor of it. If any do, though, I'd guess Maine.
• Colorado will legalize recreational marijuana; Oregon will not.
• California will require labeling of genetically engineered food but not ban the death penalty. 
• Democrats retake one, but not both, houses of the Minnesota State Legislature. 

In my mind, the best outcome of this presidential election (aside from everyone spontaneously deciding to vote for Jill Stein) would be if Obama won the electoral vote but Romney the popular vote, because it could get Republicans interested in ending the electoral college system. It could theoretically harm Obama's legislative ability, but that didn't seem to happen with Bush's first term. 

Happy voting, everyone.